The upcoming change in the global ranking of technology giants in terms of shipped devices was first reported by Counterpoint Research. According to data provided to CNBC, Apple is estimated to ship approximately 243 million iPhones in 2025, while Samsung is expected to ship around 235 million smartphones. Based on this, it is possible to determine the market share of each player – Apple would represent 19.4 percent, while Samsung would take 18.7 percent. The turning point behind this shift in power was the September introduction of the new iPhone 17 series. In connection with this, it is very important for smartphone manufacturers to monitor the so-called holiday season. This year, Apple recorded above-average performance – sales during the first four weeks increased by 12 percent in the United States compared to last year’s iPhone 16, while in China the growth reached an impressive 18 percent.*

Old for New

However, the results cannot be viewed solely based on the technological innovations of the new model. A decisive role was also played by a factor that analysts refer to as an inflection point in the replacement cycle. Its essence is that a huge number of customers who purchased their devices during the Covid-19 pandemic, that is between 2020 and 2021, are entering a period of natural smartphone replacement this year and next. This phenomenon is further amplified by the growing base of second-hand iPhones. From 2023 to mid-2025, more than 358 million used iPhones were sold this way, according to estimates from Counterpoint Research.

Samsung Under Pressure

While Apple benefits from its relatively closed ecosystem and seasonality, Samsung is facing increasing pressure in the segment where it had been dominant for many years – smartphones of the mid-range and lower categories. Its main competitors are Chinese manufacturers focused primarily on aggressive pricing strategies. For this reason, the opinion is increasingly prevailing that Samsung’s return to the number-one position will be more and more difficult and will likely require major changes in its portfolio or overall strategy.

Future of Apple’s Portfolio

Looking ahead, the first noticeable trend is the plan to expand the product portfolio by introducing a more affordable iPhone 17e model, aiming to better reach customers in developing countries. At the same time, long-awaited technological innovations are also on the horizon, such as the first foldable iPhone, a complete redesign of the iPhone in 2027, significant updates to the internal Siri voice assistant, and additional AI functionalities that today’s market highly demands. In conclusion, the situation can be summarized by a statement once again from Counterpoint Research, which expresses the potential that Apple will maintain its leading position at least until 2029.

*Past performance is not a guarantee of future results